In the forthcoming 2024 presidential elections, two UK-based research firms anticipate that former President John Mahama will prevail.
Fitch Solutions and the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) are the companies providing this forecast.
The New Patriotic Party (NPP), in power in Ghana, is expected to hand over power to the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC), according to the EIU.
The EIU predicts that deteriorating public services, a lack of job opportunities, and falling living standards will be the main causes of this.
However, Fitch Solutions predicts that former President Mahama will win the swing regions by almost 48 percent to Vice President Bawumia’s 29 percent, making it unlikely for the ruling party to hold onto power.
BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, projects that the ruling NPP’s chances of holding onto power after the 2024 election are slim.
They used data from Global Info Analytics in addition to their data, which showed that the NDC was ahead of the NPP in the Akan, Northern, Volta-Oti, and all swing regions.
On the economy
The report projects the cedi will regain some of its lost value on debt restructuring deal and end 2024 below 12 cedis to the dollar.
On elections
So EIU states that about 9 African countries will be going to the polls in 2024; where incumbent regimes are expected to prevail in most of the elections, but there is a heightened risk of reduced parliamentary majorities.
According to the EIU report Ghana is likely to experience a transfer of power from the ruling NPP to the NDC in 2024. This they say is largely driven by declining living standards, limited job opportunities and poor public services.
The EIU report also predicted that inflation in most African countries will ease in 2024 but double-digit inflation will continue to afflict some major economies including the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, and Sudan.
